Forex – Weekly Outlook: September 17 – 21


© Reuters. Forex – Weekly Outlook

Investing.com – With little data on the economic calendar, markets will likely focus more heavily on after reports said U.S. President Donald Trump wants to move forward with tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.

The tariff level will probably be about 10%, the Wall Street Journal reported, quoting people familiar with the matter. This is below the 25% the administration said it was considering for this possible round of tariffs.

Besides trade rhetoric, the U.S. will see a relatively quiet week in terms of economic releases, with a report on the housing sector expected to draw the most attention.

Economists reckon the data will do little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets the following week.

This week’s calendar also features flash survey data on euro zone business activity for September, which should give some indication of how the region’s economy is coping with global trade conflicts, Italian politics and messy Brexit negotiations.

The latest snapshots of UK inflation and retail sales will also capture some attention.

Staying in Europe, Brexit talks are set to intensify over the coming week, with the first of three summits that European Union leaders hope will settle an agreement for departing Britain within the next two months.

Elsewhere, in Asia, a monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan will be on the agenda, though no change is expected.

The dollar ticked higher against its rivals on Friday, as and higher Treasury yields rekindled some investor appetite for the greenback.

The U.S. Commerce Department said domestic retail sales rose in August, the smallest gain in six months, but July figures were revised higher, supporting the view of solid consumer spending in the third quarter.

Consumer spending, which accounts for two-third of the U.S. economy, will likely hold firm as consumer optimism improved to its strongest since March, according to the University of Michigan.

Another bright spot was a increase in industrial output last month.

The , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, ended 0.47% higher at 94.97, trimming its weekly decline to 0.4%.

The data also lifted Treasury yields, with the touching 3% for the first time in six weeks.

The climbed to a two-week high of 1.1721 earlier on Friday before retreating against the greenback. The common currency ended down 0.57% at 1.1623.

The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged as expected last week, staying on track to end bond purchases this year and raise interest rates next autumn.

closed 0.3% lower against the dollar at 1.3070, pulling back after hitting 1.3145 earlier on Friday, its highest level since July 31.

The Bank of England also kept interest rates on hold last week and highlighted greater financial market concerns about Brexit.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, September 17

The euro area is to release revised inflation data.

The U.S. is to produce data manufacturing activity in the New York region.

Tuesday, September 18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Paris.

Canada is to publish figures on manufacturing sales.

Wednesday, September 19

The Bank of Japan is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish what will be a closely watched rate statement. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.

The UK is to release inflation data.

The U.S. is to release reports on building permits and housing starts.

ECB President Draghi is to speak at an event in Berlin.

Thursday, September 20

New Zealand is to publish second-quarter growth data.

The Swiss National Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate decision.

The UK is to report on retail sales.

The U.S. is to release reports on jobless claims, manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region and existing home sales.

Friday, September 21

The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

The UK is to report on public sector borrowing figures.

Canada is to round up the week with data on retail sales and inflation.

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