Forex – Weekly Outlook: April 30 – May 4


© Reuters. Monetary policy in focus ahead of Fed meeting, U.S. jobs data

Investing.com – Investors attention will be firmly on U.S. monetary policy next week, with a Federal Reserve meeting and the nonfarm payrolls report for April the highlights of the economic calendar.

The Fed is unlikely to raise rates at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday after a hike in March, but the central bank’s statement will be closely watched amid speculation over whether it will raise rates four times this year, rather than the three signaled by policy makers.

Meanwhile, Friday’s U.S. employment report is expected to show that wage growth cooled despite a pickup in jobs growth last month.

In the euro zone, Wednesday’s flash estimate of first quarter growth and Thursday’s inflation data for April are likely to confirm that the economy has moderated since the start of the year.

In the UK, investors will be looking at surveys on private sector activity for indications on how the economy fared at the start of the second quarter after data on Friday showing that in the first quarter further dampened rate hike bets.

Another report on Friday showed that the in the first quarter, but this was offset by an increase in wage growth.

The dollar eased from three-and-a-half month highs against a currency basket following the report, with the , which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, dipping 0.09% to 91.31 in late trade.

The index still ended the week up 1.37%, its largest weekly percentage gain since early February.

The dollar was boosted after the yield on rose above 3% for the first time since 2014 last week, a sign of confidence in the outlook for the U.S. economy.

The euro pushed higher late Friday, with rising 0.22% to 1.2131 after falling to 1.2056 earlier, its weakest level since January 12. The pair ended the week down 1.28%.

The dollar was also lower against the yen, with sliding 0.23% to 109.04 in late trade after hitting a high of 109.54 earlier, the most since February 8.

Sterling ended the day at two-month lows, with falling 0.99% to 1.3779 for a weekly loss of 1.6%.

, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 30

Financial markets in Shanghai and Japan will be closed for holidays.

China is to publish PMI data on manufacturing and service sector growth.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data along with retail sales figures.

The U.S. is to publish data on personal income and spending, which includes the personal consumption expenditures inflation data, the Fed’s preferred metric for inflation, as well as reports on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and pending home sales.

Tuesday, May 1

Financial markets in China, Germany, Italy and France will be closed for holidays.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing sector activity.

Canada is to publish data on economic growth.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.

Wednesday, May 2

New Zealand is to publish its employment report for the first quarter.

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index.

The UK is to release data on construction sector activity.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report.

The Fed is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, May 3

Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.

Australia is to release data on trade and building approvals.

The UK is to produce data on service sector activity.

The euro zone is to release a preliminary inflation estimate.

Canada is to release trade data.

The U.S. is to publish data on labor costs and productivity as well as the weekly report on jobless claims, while the ISM is to publish its non-manufacturing index.

Friday, May 4

Financial markets in Japan will be closed for a holiday.

The RBA is to publish its monetary policy statement.

China is to publish its Caixin services index.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the nonfarm payrolls report for April.

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