© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires
By Swati Pandey
SYDNEY (Reuters) – The dollar held above a recent 1-1/2 month trough against a basket of major currencies on Monday, with investors cautiously awaiting news on the implementation of U.S. tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports.
U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce the new levies as early as Monday, a source told Reuters. The tariff level will probably be about 10 percent, the Wall Street Journal reported, below the 25 percent the administration had said it was considering.
The WSJ also reported that China may decline to attend trade talks due next week as Beijing won’t negotiate under threat.
“Further escalation looks very likely in which the rate will likely be raised to 25 percent and more US tariffs threatened, while China may potentially pull out of trade talks entirely and escalate on the new front of outright export restrictions,” JPMorgan (NYSE:) analysts said in a morning note.
“This would of course only inflame the situation further.”
The () against a basket of major currencies held at 94.965, well above Friday’s 94.359 which was the lowest since end-July.
The dollar has seen a surge in safe-haven demand from an escalation of global trade tensions involving the United States, China, Canada and the European Union. Expectations of faster U.S. rate rises have also pulled the currency higher.
Investors continue to be bullish on the greenback with net long positions of $19.2 billion, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data released on Friday.
The CFTC report also showed the major positioning changes were in the euro, with net longs increasing. Net shorts in sterling and the Swiss franc also declined.
The euro () and sterling each rallied last week on encouraging developments on terms for Britain’s exit from the European Union, paring some safe-haven demand for the dollar.
The euro () was last at $1.1624, down from a three-week top of $1.1721 set on Friday. The pound
The first of three Brexit summits are set for the coming week, where EU leaders hope to settle an agreement within the next two months over the terms of Britain’s departure.
Investors will watch for European inflation data later in the day and a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Tuesday.
The Australian dollar
The currency was last down 0.1 percent at $0.7146, not far from a recent 2-1/2 year trough of $0.7085.
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