EUR/USD: growth is to be replaced with downward correction

Current trend

After long growth in April and May 2017 in view of the fall of demand for the US currency the pair has entered the consolidation stage. During June the European currency has been slowly trading against USD within the framework of downward correction. After that the pair reached the key support level of 1.1125 and began to reverse. Yet another increase of interest rates by FOMC failed to influence the rate of the US currency. Many market players were surprised by the increase of EUR against USD in the beginning of the current week. The main growth catalyst was trading tendencies and positive comments by ECB head Mario Draghi. Today upward dynamics preserved in view of weak data on conumer confidence inde from France and changes in the crediting volumes in eurozone. Special attention today should be paid to the statement by Mario Draghi. The data on the main indexes from the USA and eurozone are due in the end of the week.

Support and resistance

Active growth of the pair failed to turn into serious downward correction, which shows the investors’ confidence in further growth and increase of the volume of long positons. In the medium term there is a possibility of further growth of the pair to the levels of 1.1470, 1.1500 (local maximums of the late 2015 – middle 2016). Despite the pair’s consolidation in the upward channel, the level of 1.1500 will be difficult to break through, and there is a possibility of formation of long downward correction with possible breaking of the upward trend. Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast. MACD indicator shows the absence of “bears”, and the volume of long positions continues to grow.

Support levels: 1.1370, 1.1350, 1.1280, 1.1200, 1.1155, 1.1050, 1.1020, 1.0820, 1.0710, 1.0570.

Resistance levels: 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1550, 1.1610, 1.1700, 1.1730.

Trading tips

Deferred short positions may be opened from the levels 1.1470, 1.1500 with targets at 1.1280, 1.1155. Stop-loss may be placed at 1.1530.

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