EUR/USD: fundamental data will strengthen the dollar

Current trend

EUR continues trading in a lateral, tapering consolidation against USD. This month, the pair has tested the upper band of the range several times, rebounded from the bottom band and now is close to the upper band again.

The growth of EUR is due to strong data on all major indices in Germany. The releases in the US at the beginning of the week were controversial.

Today, investors expect the ECB decision on the interest rate and Mario Draghi’s press-conference. The regulator is unlikely to change monetary policy, but there may be statements concerning the rate increase in the near future. The key factor for this step is the eurozone inflation, and as the indicator was only 0.10% in June, the preservation of the program of buying assets and rates at the same level is more realistic.

Investors expect data on labor market and durable goods orders in the US today.

Tomorrow traders will focus on data on the US economy growth rate and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Support and resistance

Today, the pair came close to a strong resistance level, which is the upper band of the lateral trend, then it reversed and went down. Fundamental factors indicate the strengthening of USD, while EUR will lose investment interest, which means that the pair will again go to the local lows at 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1510.

Technical indicators on the weekly and monthly charts confirm the forecast. MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are directed downwards.

Resistance levels: 1.1715, 1.1745, 1.1775, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1900.

Support levels: 1.1690, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1510, 1.1500, 1.1430.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.1600, 1.1510 and stop loss at 1.1770.

Euro vs US Dollar

Buy Sell Spread
1.17228 1.17205 23

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendations SELL
Entry Point 1.1714
Take Profit 1.1600, 1.1510
Stop Loss 1.1770
Support levels 1.1430, 1.1500, 1.1510, 1.1575, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1715, 1.1745, 1.1775, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1900

EUR/USD: fundamental data will strengthen the dollar

The material published on this page is produced by the Claws&Horns Company and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC; furthermore it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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