AUD/USD: towards historical lows

Current trend

AUD is falling against USD due to favorable US macroeconomic statistics.

At the end of August, the AUD/USD pair rebounded from the key resistance level of 0.7350 and swiftly went down. During a couple of trading weeks, the price has declined by more than 200 points and has reached a new local minimum of 0.7145 (the lower border of the medium-term channel). USD was supported by the acceleration of Q2 US economic growth rates and positive data on the labor market and key indices. The RBA keeps a soft monetary policy and a low interest rate, which affects AUD negatively. Yesterday, the pair reached the lower border of the channel and gradually began to restore, reaching the level of 0.7190 by now.

Key releases, such as US labor market and indices data, are expected at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

Consensus forecasts indicate a grown in Nonfarm Payrolls and a decrease in the unemployment rate, which will affect the pair negatively by strengthening USD. In the long term, the pair can test the historical minimums of early 2016 — 0.6900, 0.6830.

An alternative scenario is a sideways consolidation if the price fails to break the level of 0.7150.

Technical indicators confirm the forecast for a further decline, the volumes of short positions of MACD are increasing, Bollinger bands are directed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410.

Support levels: 0.7145, 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830.

Trading tips

It is relevant to open short positions from the current level and open pending positions from the level 0.7330, 0.7300 with the targets at 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830 and stop loss 0.7390.

Australian vs US Dollar

Buy Sell Spread
0.7206 0.72038 22

Scenario

Timeframe Weekly
Recommendations SELL
Entry Point 0.7195
Take Profit 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830
Stop Loss 0.7340
Support levels 0.6830, 0.6900, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7145, 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410

Alternative scenario

Recommendations SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 0.7330, 0.7300
Take Profit 0.7050, 0.6900, 0.6830
Stop Loss 0.7390
Support levels 0.6830, 0.6900, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7145, 0.7225, 0.7275, 0.7300, 0.7330, 0.7350, 0.7370, 0.7410

AUD/USD: towards historical lows

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